By Michael Erwin, Sport Management, ’25

 

Some might say March is just another month, but to me and college basketball enthusiasts, it’s a month long Christmas. March Madness is a tournament of 68 games in only 2.5 weeks filled with unexpected heartbreak inversely paired with unsung heroes, cinderella stories that make you question everything you know, and at the end; tragedy or triumph. Although, the games are half the reason the tournament gets so much attention, the other half: Brackets.

Each year more then 50 million brackets are made, the goal; to make a perfect bracket, where the maker of the bracket perfectly predicts the winner of each game. Doesn’t seem so difficult, except there’s never been a perfect bracket ever made. With every March, millions of bracket makers think they have the one that will be perfect, and each year ends with disappointment. And I think this year, has the potential to be one of the most unpredictable March Madness tournaments of all time. I’ll be explaining my predictions for potential cinderella teams that could have a giant run in the tournament and some statistics that people might not know about before making their bracket.

 

My Favorite Lower Seeded Teams

Each year, brackets are ruined by these lower seeded teams that beat their higher seeded opponents. The following are teams that could end up causing big upsets and ruining your bracket, ranked on the possibility of it happening.

For a team to qualify as a “Lower Seeded Team”, they have to be the 10th seed or lower

 

The Unexpected

15 Seed, South Dakota St vs 2 Seed, Iowa State

I may be crazy but I love this Jack Rabbits team, they’re a highly efficient 3-point shooting team with a playmaking guard in Zeke Mayo who averages 18.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.5 apg. To top it off, they’re winners of 10 out of their last 11 games and their last 8 wins have been by 8 or more points. Expect this team to give the Cyclones a run for their money.

 

14 Seed, Morehead St vs 3 Seed, Illinois

This ones a little more tame than the last one, but this team has a good chance to make some noise against the Big-10 Champions. Morehead St is currently 26-8 and is lead by near 21 ppg scorer Riley Minx. This isn’t their first time playing powerhouse teams this year, although they lost, they put up commendable fights in their first 4 games where they played Alabama and Purdue as well as Penn State. They know how teams like this play and I believe their slow pace could really benefit them against a high pace, lots of shooting team like Illinois

 

 

Could Possibly Upset

13 Seed, Samford vs 4 seed, Kansas

I know… I picked a team that was ranked top 5 pretty much the whole year to get upset. Let me explain, Samford this year scores 86 points per game this year (5th in the country) and shoots 39.3% from the three (7th in the country) and play at a faster pace which could work out well for them. Kansas is an injured team right now having their best 2 players out with injuries for the past month, which included a notable 20 point loss against Cincinnati in the Big-12 quarterfinals. With one of their injured players coming back, it gives them a better chance but are definitely still on upset watch.

 

12 Seed, McNeese St vs 5 Seed, Gonzaga

Another historically good basketball team on upset watch, against a team I think is one of the best, if not the best team from a 1-bid league (Also one of the most exciting). McNeese St this year went 30-3, coached by Will Wade, who has a lot of March Madness experience as this is his 6th appearance, coaching one team to the Sweet 16, this is his first season with McNeese St. They are 11th in Points Per Possession and 6th in Opponent Turnover Possession and 10th in Opponent Points/Possession.

 

 

Definitely Could See This Happening

10 Seed, Drake vs 7 Seed, Washington St

Drake is on a hot streak right now, finishing the season at 28-6, but in their recent games, ESPN has them as the 20th best team, compared to Washington St’s ranking of 45. Drake is overall a better offensive team, scoring more points per possession, better shooting percentage, and turns the ball over less. Drake is also a better defensive team, getting more turnovers per game, limits opponent offensive rebounds better(7th in the country) and holds opposing teams to less free throw attempts. These are definitely some of the most outstanding stats against a higher seeded opponent.

 

12 Seed, James Madison vs 5 Seed, Wisconsin

This has been one of the most talked about and intriguingย games in the first round. James Madison is a really good defensive team ranked 11th in the country in opponent points per possession and one of the best scoring teams in the country (20th in points per possession), meanwhile a streaky Wisconsin struggles at defense being in the bottom 50% of all D-1 basketball teams, but their offense (most of the time) shows up. I think James Madison will prevail in the end however, being lead by 3 players who score double-digit points per game, could really help them make a run into the Sweet 16 or even the Elite 8.

 

6 Facts You Might Not Know, To Help You Make a Better Bracket

  1. 28 out of the last 30 champions, have had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience.
  2. Since the addition of the First Four, there has been only 1 year, where a team that played in the First Four, hasn’t made it to the Round of 32.
  3. 6 of the 16 previous 11 seeds have made it to the second weekend (At least Sweet 16).
  4. In recent years, the added seed total from teams who make the final four, averages around 11.
  5. Since 2017, 5 out of the 6 winners have been one seeds, the only winner not to be a 1 seed was last year(UCONN, 4 Seed).
  6. No Preseason unranked 1 (13 total) ย or 2 (25 total) seed has ever made it to the final four (This year’s Preseason unranked 2 seed is Iowa St), these 2 seeds average 1.45 wins in the tournament on average.

 

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